Preseason Rankings
Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#172
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.5#45
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#183
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#160
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 11.4% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.8
.500 or above 64.4% 71.8% 44.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 81.0% 65.0%
Conference Champion 11.4% 13.2% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.4% 4.2%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.3%
First Round9.2% 10.7% 4.9%
Second Round1.2% 1.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.00.1 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.1 - 0.90.2 - 1.9
Quad 20.4 - 1.80.6 - 3.6
Quad 32.6 - 4.33.2 - 7.9
Quad 412.9 - 5.016.1 - 12.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 234   Pepperdine W 78-74 73%    
  Nov 21, 2018 330   @ Incarnate Word W 82-71 76%    
  Nov 24, 2018 29   @ Texas Tech L 66-78 9%    
  Nov 28, 2018 200   @ Denver W 74-72 46%    
  Dec 01, 2018 173   @ Wyoming W 81-80 41%    
  Dec 15, 2018 121   @ San Diego L 70-74 29%    
  Dec 17, 2018 93   @ New Mexico St. L 70-76 23%    
  Dec 22, 2018 110   Rider L 80-84 36%    
  Dec 23, 2018 320   SIU Edwardsville W 80-71 79%    
  Dec 29, 2018 257   @ Sacramento St. W 74-69 58%    
  Dec 31, 2018 246   @ Portland St. W 84-80 55%    
  Jan 05, 2019 262   Idaho W 73-68 76%    
  Jan 07, 2019 174   Eastern Washington W 74-73 60%    
  Jan 12, 2019 73   Montana L 71-79 36%    
  Jan 14, 2019 251   @ Montana St. W 80-75 56%    
  Jan 19, 2019 147   @ Weber St. L 73-75 35%    
  Jan 21, 2019 247   @ Idaho St. W 78-74 53%    
  Jan 24, 2019 295   Southern Utah W 82-75 79%    
  Jan 26, 2019 326   @ Northern Arizona W 78-68 73%    
  Feb 04, 2019 251   Montana St. W 80-75 74%    
  Feb 07, 2019 246   Portland St. W 84-80 73%    
  Feb 09, 2019 257   Sacramento St. W 74-69 75%    
  Feb 14, 2019 262   @ Idaho W 73-68 59%    
  Feb 16, 2019 174   @ Eastern Washington W 74-73 41%    
  Feb 25, 2019 73   @ Montana L 71-79 19%    
  Feb 28, 2019 147   Weber St. L 73-75 54%    
  Mar 02, 2019 247   Idaho St. W 78-74 73%    
  Mar 07, 2019 295   @ Southern Utah W 82-75 63%    
  Mar 09, 2019 326   Northern Arizona W 78-68 86%    
Projected Record 16.1 - 12.9 12.0 - 8.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.1 2.3 1.2 0.2 11.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.5 5.4 4.0 1.6 0.3 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.9 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.4 5.1 3.1 0.7 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.3 2.2 0.3 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 3.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.4 5.8 6.8 9.3 9.7 11.2 11.4 10.6 8.8 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
18-2 87.5% 2.3    1.9 0.4 0.0
17-3 65.3% 3.1    2.1 0.9 0.1
16-4 35.1% 2.5    1.2 1.0 0.2
15-5 17.0% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 7.1 3.4 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 78.3% 51.7% 26.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.1%
19-1 1.2% 59.0% 49.2% 9.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 19.3%
18-2 2.7% 46.1% 42.7% 3.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.4 5.9%
17-3 4.7% 30.9% 29.1% 1.8% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.2 2.5%
16-4 7.0% 21.3% 21.1% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 5.5 0.3%
15-5 8.8% 16.1% 16.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 7.4
14-6 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 9.5
13-7 11.4% 7.7% 7.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 10.5
12-8 11.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 10.7
11-9 9.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.3
10-10 9.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.0
9-11 6.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.6
8-12 5.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.7
7-13 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.3
6-14 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.8% 9.4% 0.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.8 90.2 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 100.0